Central Bank Statistics Questioned

Information released by the Central Bank of Barbados about the country’s international business sector appears to be at odds with data collated by other sources which suggests that the sector is doing better than the Central Bank has indicated.

Barbados Economy Review 1st Six Months 2010

Central Bank Governor Dr. Delisle Worrell’s Economic Review June 2010.

The Barbados Economy in 2009 and Prospects for 2010

Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, Dr. DeLisle Worrell will host his first news conference Today, January 13, 2010 in the Executive Dining Room, Central Bank of Barbados.

Central Bank Of Barbados 3rd Quarter 2009 Economic Review

Outgoing Central Bank Governor gave her last economic review for the first three quarters of 2009.

Barbados economy declined by 4.4 per cent during the first three quarters of this year.Central Bank Governor Dr Marion Williams believes the economic slide will not stop by year-end but it should certainly slow with a possible recovery late next year.

Speaking yesterday at the Tom Adams Financial Centre, Church Village, The City, where she delivered her last economic review as head of the bank, Williams said declining tourist arrivals triggered the reduced activity in the island’s traded and non-traded sectors.

Reporting on the performance of various sectors, the economist said Barbados’ main foreign exchange earner – tourism – had suffered an 11.4 per cent decline in long-stay arrivals up to September.

Standard & Poor Revised Barbados Economic Outlook It’s Now Heading For Rough Times What A Discovery!

  The last time Standard & Poor make any predictions on the bajan economy it was back in early September. The economy was going to be smelling like a rose.

“There is no immediate impact as far as we can tell on Barbados.”

“We currently forecast two per cent growth for Barbados in both 2008 and 2009.”

Even Central Bank Governor Dr Marion Williams echo the same sentiments later.

The Barbados economy is expected to feel the effects of the turbulence in the United States financial markets later, rather than sooner.

Central Bank Governor Dr Marion Williams said yesterday that while the situation is unlikely to have a significant impact on Barbados immediately…….

All of a sudden now, economists, financial advisers, politicians, businessmen and whoever else that relied on Standard & Poor figures to make concise decisions, now have to find themselves dashing back to the drawing board to revised figures. Why? Because the same economy that was coming out smelling like a rose this year is now heading for rough seas!

From The Barbados Advocate

THE Barbados economy is headed for rough times.

 

International rating agency Standard & Poors has revised downward it’s economic outlook for Barbados, predicting the island will have less economic growth this year and the next.

A lead S&P spokesman also forecasted foreign direct investment (FDI) into the island “could dry up” as a result of the economic turmoil in the United States (US) and internationally.

 

This bad news was expected to spread to all other Caribbean economies except Trinidad and Tobago, S&P’s director of Sovereign Ratings Richard Francis.

 

Francis shared these views with the Barbados Advocate ahead of US president George W. Bush signing a US$700 billion bailout plan for collapsing Wall Street firms into law.

“We are revising our forecasts for Barbados to one per cent growth this year and 1.5 per cent growth next year from 2.5 per cent and two per cent, respectively. In terms of the Caribbean overall, we have begun trimming our growth forecasts overall for the region, just as in Barbados (with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago),” the official disclosed.

 

Francis said it was “still too early to say what the effects of the bailout will be”, but believed the signs were not good.

“If you look at the economic releases from Barbados, you already see a sharp slowdown in growth, with first half growth of just 1.3 per cent with a decline in long-stay arrivals from tourists from the US. However, there were increases from British and Canadian tourists,” he said.

 

“The weak US dollar is probably helping with these tourists. Given the economic slowdown, we are starting to see in Canada and Europe, especially Britain, I would say that growth is probably to the downside”.

 

Francis said S&P’s prediction was that the US gross domestic product would drop at the end of December, “bottom out” between January and March next year “and then to show signs of recovery after that”.

He added, however, that America’s economic growth was unlikely to improve in 2009, “decelerating to just 0.8 per cent in 2009 (from 1.8 per cent in 2008). And the odds that an actual recession will result have risen to 80 per cent”.

 

According to him, this was not a good thing for Barbados, especially in the area of FDI inflows.

• Barbados May Benefit From US-Cuban Travel After All 

   

PM Thompson Calling It As It Is Should Barbadians Worry About Their Assets In US Banks?

   Photo credit -UN

I came across an interesting piece of information on Bajan Dream Project blog where it states that 35,000 bajans live on less than $8.00 a day.

The Project primary aim according to its blog is to ‘deliver a unique intervention by combining skills training, micro-financing and housing provision in a sustainable ‘workfare’ model. Our broad aims are to give the poor the tools needed to earn their own income and grow their personal wealth, while supplementing their economic independence through the provision of affordable housing.’

 At the recent held 63rd UN General Assembly, the topic of poverty, the needs for small nations concerns to be well heeded in the internaional arena and the ongoing global financial crisis in the financial markets today, PM David Thompson wasted no time in declaring his views on the current financial turmoil in the States and its ripple effects throughout the worldwide banking system and stock markets.

 

“Barbados believes that those responsible for the crisis, and who also created, controlled, and manipulated the global financial system for their own advantage, cannot be trusted to heal it,” Prime Minister David Thompson told the assembly.

 

“Developing countries must demonstrate leadership in the search for a lasting solution to the global financial crisis and insist that any exan ercise to institute reforms must strictly adhere to the principles of openness, transparency and inclusiveness, with the United Nations taking the lead,” said the Barbados leader. Source The People Online.

Tough Times Ahead For Barbados Due To US Financial Turmoil

    The Barbados economy is expected to feel the effects of the turbulence in the United States financial markets later, rather than sooner.

Central Bank Governor Dr Marion Williams said yesterday that while the situation is unlikely to have a significant impact on Barbados immediately, “as the US economy slows or goes into recession as it copes with these difficulties, the result could be a slowdown in the growth of the Barbados economy going forward”.

She added that recession in the United Kingdom and European economies would also impact adversely on the country’s tourism prospects and investment inflows. But she was optimistic that the Barbados economy could withstand the effects of the turmoil.

“The Barbados financial system should remain sound although there may be some loss in value – realised and unrealised – on US dollar fixed income securities held by financial institutions, including the Central Bank, as securities’ prices in the US markets tumble,” Dr Williams said.

And even as the US government seeks to provide a US$700 billion bailout for American businesses in financial crisis, the Central Bank Governor said that could also have an impact on the Barbados economy.

“Over the longer term and into 2009, given the size of the bailout by the US government, we can expect larger US fiscal deficits, possibly a further depreciation in the US dollar and a likelihood of a longer US recession than was anticipated. The likelihood of a global slowdown also becomes greater. The international credit markets are likely to be hesitant to lend for a while until markets settle,” she said.

FULL STORY

• Barbados Safe For Now – Standard & Poors